I'm always concerned when the economy looks like it may be headed to a downturn. You know, there is always some fallout from that. There always is when there's a downturn. The good news is that the downturn is going to be mild by historical standards.
To put that in a bit of context, we officially are looking for negative growth in the second and third quarters of this year, but a peak to trough of just about two- to three-tenths in terms of net decline in GDP. While that may barely satisfy the technical definition of a recession, it is not going to generate the kind of strain on creditworthiness that more typical downturns tend to generate.